The Pound Sterling (GBP) flattens against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.2940 in Monday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair trades flat as investors turn cautious ahead of the so-called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, when United States (US) President Donald Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on his trading allies.
The imposition of reciprocal levies by US President Trump will significantly impact global economic growth. Goods attracting higher duties will become less competitive globally, and their respective firms will be forced to lower their prices significantly. Such a scenario will force them to dump their products in other nations.
Analysts at Barclays said, “We expect the countries with the largest trade deficits in goods with the US and with the highest tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers could potentially be the target of the reciprocal tariffs.” As to their theory, the European Union (EU), China, Canada, India, and Japan will face higher tariffs from the US.
Financial market participants believe that the US economy will also face economic risks in the near term due to Trump’s tariffs. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have revised the chances of a recession in the US to 35% from their prior expectations of 20%. Their upward revision for recession risks has been based on a sharp “deterioration in household and business confidence”, and statements from the White House officials indicating “greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness” in pursuit of their policies.
